tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-111987712024-03-19T08:16:05.614-04:00Cosmic ViewsNotes, news, images and thoughts about what's going on in spaceDLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-91346078614497704602012-11-22T20:15:00.002-05:002012-11-22T20:59:32.345-05:00Curious about CuriosityThe media are abuzz with speculation about the expected announcement of new results from the Curiosity rover on Mars, at the AGU meeting on Dec. 3. Expectations were fanned to a frenzy by John Grotzinger's comments to NPR's Joe Palca this week, in which he said this would be one for the history books, and would be earthshaking. Needless to say, that has triggered ever-escalating notions of what it might be, from the silly to the superlative and sublime.
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What's more likely is that it will indeed be an important announcement, but not of the extreme kind people are thinking of. It's probably not something wriggling or slithering in front of the camera, and it's probably not a fossil, though lord knows I'd be delighted to be proved wrong. Most likely, it's one of two things:
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1. Organics in the soil. Ever since the Viking mission in 1976, this has been the biggest bugaboo about life on Mars. No organics were detected by the instrument on that mission, a gas-chromatograph mass spectrometer, that should have found them. That non-detection was taken by most scientists ever since to contradict the results of the labelled-release test, which otherwise would have been seen as a positive detection of living, breathing microbes on Mars. Since then, other tests have demonstrated that fairly abundant organics on Mars could in fact have fallen below the threshold of detection of that GCMS, but the prevailing view for all these years that Viking had failed to find signs of life had become too deeply ingrained for the new evidence to make much of an impression. So, while direct detection of organics in the soil by the much more sensitive instruments on Curiosity would of course not prove the presence of life there now, it would show that the one piece of evidence that had been interpreted as ruling out a positive detection by Viking has now been shown to be false. At the very least, that would open the question anew, and provide a strong impetus to carry out the follow up experiments, which could clinch the matter, and which should have been done long ago.
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2. Methane in the air. Though this is also an indirect sign, it too could provide strong evidence for the presence of living, breathing microorganism on Mars today. Curiosity detected signs of methane when it first arrived, but a second set of tests found none, so the initial results were then taken to have been just residual contamination carried there from Earth. But if a third set of tests did find methane again, that would show it had to be Martian after all. And while there are some highly unlikely non-biological mechanisms that could explain methane in the air of Mars, seeing methane that comes and goes would be very, very hard to explain that way. So, like organics, this would be a strong indicator of extant life forms on Mars today.
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Either of these findings, while very exciting and likely to cause a turnaround in the prevailing scientific thinking about whether life exists on Mars today, are nevertheless indirect, complex, and likely to remain highly controversial for a long time. But if nothing else, it will finally provide the needed spur for future missions to carry out the tests that would be needed to prove it once and for all.
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Or, I could be wrong and the new findings could be something completely different. In any case, we'll know what it is a week from next Monday.
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-70077118847672580442009-07-12T13:35:00.008-04:002009-07-12T15:03:28.706-04:00Earthlings going to Mars!I have written many times over 30-some years about why I'm quite convinced, based on the results of the Viking experiments in 1976 and supported by a lot of new evidence since then, that living organisms exist on Mars today. (Examples include my <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Life-Mars-David-L-Chandler/dp/B002H3NI84/ref=sr_1_41?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1247422051&sr=1-41">book</a>, and articles in The <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/77jun/chandler.htm">Atlantic</a>, <a href="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.03/mars.html">Wired</a>,<a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19225751.500-searching-for-life-in-a-handful-of-dust.html"> New Scientist</a>, etc.) We'll certainly have the proof within the next couple of decades, and we'll see if I've been right about this (along with a few others, including Viking scientist <a href="http://mars.spherix.com/mars.html">Gil Levin</a>, and former NASA scientist Robert Jastrow).<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidbP3Z2GLcyTytufLNRWNpvS_Z8ooXU8GUdRlMs3x800C2MrCLRh7MQhCiUbXUKPspBnCFdkPs0dL8JiPHVwtUdlcxVmJVmaxeiekCEt05-KOw-XRhQnGO0sOoM6JOnOpvmydM/s1600-h/viking.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidbP3Z2GLcyTytufLNRWNpvS_Z8ooXU8GUdRlMs3x800C2MrCLRh7MQhCiUbXUKPspBnCFdkPs0dL8JiPHVwtUdlcxVmJVmaxeiekCEt05-KOw-XRhQnGO0sOoM6JOnOpvmydM/s320/viking.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357635220428753954" /></a><br />I also think it's pretty likely, though by no means proven, that Terrestrial life may actually have originated on Mars, and that primitive microbes were first brought here by meteorites blasted off by asteroid impacts on Mars. We'll find that out eventually too. And it's also almost certain that living organisms from Earth have already contaminated the surface of Mars (see <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4812-life-on-mars--but-we-sent-it.html">this story</a>, for example).<br />But in the meantime, a new and very interesting experiment on a Russian spacecraft to be launched this October will be testing part of that hypothesis -- the ability of microbial life to survive the radiation, zero-g, the shock of blastoff and so on of an interplanetary trip. Four vials of organisms will be carried to Mars (actually, to the surface of its moon Phobos), and then brought back to Earth for analysis. The experiment is happening thanks to the Planetary Society.<br />There's a good story with some of the details <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/jul/12/mars-mission-conan-bacterium-russian">here</a>. It sounds like a good selection of organisms they're testing. The results should be very interesting.<br />I certainly hope it works -- unlike the last attempt to send a biologically-interesting experiment to Mars, a (fairly crude, simple) followup to the Viking labeled release life-detection test that was carried aboard the Russian Mars 96 probe (in guess what year?), which alas ended up somewhere in the Atacama desert of northern Chile after a launch failure and was never found.<br />They'll also be bringing back to Earth some soil from Phobos, which could be quite interesting -- and which is a much better idea than bringing back Mars soil, which I think would be premature at this point, given the danger of potential contamination (if, as I've just been ranting on about, there is life there now that's closely related to us).<br />I'm excited about this new mission, and I hope it all succeeds.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-70066032424742509862008-06-16T00:57:00.002-04:002008-06-16T01:01:58.286-04:00another day, another blogI haven't posted anything on this blog for quite a while, but don't give up on me yet, I still may from time to time.<br />But in the meantime, you might take a look at a new blog I've started, on the Discovery Channel's new space website. It's devoted to space and astronomy projects involving college students. It's called Next Generation. Please take a look at it <a href="http://blogs.discovery.com/next_generation">HERE</a>.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-91947514448293610852007-09-18T12:58:00.000-04:002007-09-18T13:29:02.176-04:00When I was your age ... A million Pluto fans!I've already ranted at length in this space on my feelings about the IAU's decision last year -- in my opinion, silly and misguided -- to demote Pluto from planetary status (For example, my postings <a href="http://cosmicviews.blogspot.com/2006/08/astronomical-lunacy.html">here</a> and <a href="http://cosmicviews.blogspot.com/2006/08/retreating-from-crazy-iau-proposal-is.html">here</a>). And I knew that it was an issue that had attracted a lot of interest from the public, and especially students, far beyond the level of public interest in most astronomical subjects. I was struck at the time by how quickly it became fodder for <a href="http://cosmicviews.blogspot.com/2006/08/pluto-comix.html">cartoons</a> and even <a href="http://cosmicviews.blogspot.com/2006/08/pluto-blues.html">songs</a> written about the ex-planet.<br />But I hadn't realized just how powerful that level of interest was.<br />Last week, I joined the popular online social networking site <a href="http://facebook.com">Facebook</a>, because I had read about some other journalists joining the site and finding it useful. Almost immediately, my page on Facebook began showing me the names of "groups" on the service that I might be interested in, based on the groups I had already signed up for. And the very cute name of <a href="http://mit.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2207893888">one of those groups </a>immediately caught my eye: "When I was your age, Pluto was a planet."<br />As soon as I went to that group's page, it blew my socks off. The other groups I had joined had a few dozen members, or a hundred or so. One of them even had a few thousand. But the Pluto group already had 950,000 members! In the days since then, it has now surged across the million-member mark.<br />Talk about striking a nerve!<br />I later read an article about the group (<a href="http://www.thedaily.washington.edu/article/2007/2/21/facebookGroupOfTheWeekWhenIWasYourAgePlutoWasAPlanet">here </a>) that says within a few weeks of its founding last year, it had become the second-most-popular group on the whole Facebook site. Most of the top groups have more predictable subjects -- political or social causes -- but this one was a big surprise. Passions run very strong about poor little Pluto -- as I had predicted, but even more than I expected.<br />Alan Stern, lead scientist for the New Horizons mission that's on its way to Pluto and now a top NASA official, has been leading the charge to overturn the IAU's misguided decision, and I wish him well. I think nothing substantive is likely to happen until the IAU has its next general meeting in 2009, but maybe the movement will have gained enough steam by then to get the decision changed.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-7539632310338834152007-09-13T17:58:00.000-04:002008-12-09T01:09:33.283-05:00Google me to the moon<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsvybZwEoBi50GiL8GH6MAo58GDqnT9yJIOh8LU4X7P8VBGjae2cX75VxxZ_SbGjChyphenhyphenD0A7UdU0KX5_IYP1p2akO5KO309YY6OUaWxzc3rFbVScgYLWyLBhm-OB2RDiHfv47aY/s1600-h/moon_20_poster.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsvybZwEoBi50GiL8GH6MAo58GDqnT9yJIOh8LU4X7P8VBGjae2cX75VxxZ_SbGjChyphenhyphenD0A7UdU0KX5_IYP1p2akO5KO309YY6OUaWxzc3rFbVScgYLWyLBhm-OB2RDiHfv47aY/s320/moon_20_poster.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5109814251665708354" /></a><br /><br /><br />A big new prize was announced today, which may help to spur further development of private space vehicles the way the $10-million <a href="http://www.xprize.org/x-prizes/ansari-x-prize">Ansari X-Prize</a> did three years ago. (See one of my stories <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/globe/health_science/articles/2004/10/19/final_frontier_space_tourism/">here</a> about the winning SpaceShipOne).<br />Coming from the same folks, the new $30-million <a href="http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/">Google Lunar X-Prize</a> will be awarded to the first private company to send an unmanned rover vehicle to the moon, travel at least 500 meters on the surface, and send back lots of pictures of its activities to Earth. Alan Boyle has lots of details in <a href="http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/09/13/358739.aspx">his story today</a> on MSNBC.<br />Among those who may try for the prize is <a href="http://armadilloaerospace.com">Armadillo Aerospace</a>, the odds-on favorite to win $2 million next month at the Lunar Lander Challenge in New Mexico. Armadillo's Pixel has already demonstrated that it's capable of winning the prize, as long as nothing goes disastrously wrong between now and then. (See my story on that today at <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/19374/?a=f">Technology Review</a>)<br />Things are really heating up in the private space arena, as I've been predicting for years. This could be the busiest year yet, and next year even more so.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-19399158566562576812007-03-20T22:40:00.000-04:002008-12-09T01:09:33.441-05:00Another step toward a new age<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaqv19XrkZED_2Z0rQrJOslk2-NEFA1sOBXv3rNEBut6XkAOEQIFdlyc9AMXfg3hNGxEKfqmwEWOTEEbxcjIzddW8XUqnlUj_sjsygrhsH1iTuoea3wIVDORXlZ2p5Z8cEGbnj/s1600-h/earth.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaqv19XrkZED_2Z0rQrJOslk2-NEFA1sOBXv3rNEBut6XkAOEQIFdlyc9AMXfg3hNGxEKfqmwEWOTEEbxcjIzddW8XUqnlUj_sjsygrhsH1iTuoea3wIVDORXlZ2p5Z8cEGbnj/s320/earth.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5044205399852607602" /></a><br /><br><br /><br /><br />Elon Musk's Falcon 1 rocket made a very impressive takeoff today, setting a series of records and making Space Exploration Technologies only the second company ever to send a privately-financed rocket into space (after Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites, which flew SpaceShipOne to 100 km three times in 2004). In the process, it set a variety of records, including the highest flight of a private rocket, at 300 km.<br />The flight ultimately failed, as the second stage went into an oscillation that caused the engine to shut down prematurely. But Musk is confident that the most important objectives were achieved -- a successful first stage liftoff and flight, second-stage separation, fairing separation, second-stage ignition and initial stable flight.<br />The live webcast was very impressive, showing the whole flight from an onboard camera -- a trick even NASA only learned to do relatively recently. I hope they post a copy of it on their website ( <a href="http://www.spacex.com">www.spacex.com</a> )<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-2311897838917224192007-03-19T19:57:00.000-04:002008-12-09T01:09:33.564-05:00SpaceX will be trying againAfter their first launch of the Falcon 1 rocket went awry seconds after liftoff a year ago (March 24), Space Exploration is about to try again. This time, they've even got a live webcast covering the event. (It's at <a href="http://spacex.com/webcast.php">http://spacex.com/webcast.php</a> )<br />Unfortunately, today's attempt was halted at T minus 1 minute 30 seconds, and it's not clear what the cause was. Such things are normal and expected in the rocket biz, especially with a brand new design. Nothing to worry about. They've scrubbed for today, but they've said they could reschedule for another try tomorrow or the day after.<br />Kimbal Musk, brother of SpaceX founder and president Elon Musk, keeps a nice firsthand blog on launch events, from right there on Kwajelein Atoll in the Pacific, where these intial tests are being carried out (see it here: <a href="http://kwajrockets.blogspot.com/">http://kwajrockets.blogspot.com/</a> ). The operational launches will be from spaceports in the US.<br />Here's a view of the pad, from the live webcast:<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNk93EniKbSI-VhA1AayM1yEOmIHVeF77ODDoBNGvX7avU3N5vNzq_DQ-r4ggy18mukvw5NQPJ4B9jxzTln1iGiZOYNcfkHG9T6HtcIJeMIdCOnjFjleykDPkrtyT8550RPO8y/s320/t-3.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNk93EniKbSI-VhA1AayM1yEOmIHVeF77ODDoBNGvX7avU3N5vNzq_DQ-r4ggy18mukvw5NQPJ4B9jxzTln1iGiZOYNcfkHG9T6HtcIJeMIdCOnjFjleykDPkrtyT8550RPO8y/s320/t-3.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1158606436330194252006-09-18T14:53:00.000-04:002007-02-02T12:47:33.933-05:00Amazing photo of shuttle and ISS<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6188/898/1600/Legault1_strip.2.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6188/898/320/Legault1_strip.2.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />An amateur astronomer in France, Thierry Legault, took this amazing picture yesterday <a href="http://www.astrosurf.com/legault/iss_shuttle.jpg">(full-size version here)</a> of the International Space Station and the space shuttle Atlantis, which had just separated from it in preparation for its return to Earth. Legault managed to catch the pair just as they passed in front of the sun, providing a stunningly clear silhouette that shows the newly-installed solar panels on the ISS.<br />Legault has been taking amazing telescope pictures for years, and has previously taken several shots of airplanes passing in front of the sun, as well as of eclipses and other more usual astronomical subjects, and has written a book (in French) about astrophotography. He has a great collection of pictures on <a href="http://www.astrosurf.com/legault/">his own website</a>.<br />Thanks to <a href="http://spaceweather.com">spaceweather.com</a>, a wonderful website where I first saw this photo.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1156876016234418452006-08-29T14:24:00.000-04:002007-01-18T01:38:09.440-05:00Pluto bluesI just came across this <a href="http://www.purevolume.com/jimmyandthekeyz/blog">new song</a> about the IAU decision last week to downgrade Pluto from planet to dwarf planet. It's called "They Demoted Pluto," and I think it's a remarkably well-done and apt song. My kudos to Jimmy and the Keyz.<br />At least people are talking passionately about a scientific (sort of) issue! How often do you hear a catchy song with lines like this:<br />"God, I hate the IAU<br />They demoted Pluto<br />What's a guy like me to do?<br />They demoted Pluto..."<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1156360336697061662006-08-23T14:51:00.000-04:002006-08-29T06:06:55.266-04:00Retreating from crazy, IAU proposal is now just badI should point out that my diatribe below about the crazy IAU proposal being debated this week is already obsolete, since an amendment to the original definition was adopted earlier today that would trim the number of planets from the proposed 53 (masquerading as 12) down to just 8. This decimation of the population was accomplished by adding one simple phrase, that the object must dominate its region of space. That immediately knocks out Ceres (part of the asteroid belt), and Pluto, Charon and 2004 UB313 (parts of the Kuiper Belt). So instead of gaining 44 planets, the solar system loses one, namely Pluto, and everybody who cares at all about this is just going to be very ticked off (except Neil Tyson of New York's Hayden Planetarium, who had already made the decision to go to just 8 planets).<br />It's an improvement over having 53 planets, which obviously nobody was going to take seriously, and eliminates the craziness of including Charon, and the weirdness of including Ceres. But really, what's the point?<br />Defining the "region" that must be dominated by a planet is intrinsically arbitrary. So why bother? If we're going to have an arbitrary definition, on a matter that affects culture far more than it does science, why not use the arbitrary decision that fits harmoniously with what culture has overwhelmingly agreed on, and is simpler and easier to rememeber to boot? Accept anything bigger than Pluto, or (virtually the same thing) bigger than the nice round 1,000 km radius, and everybody's happy. Kill off Pluto as a planet, and no scientific purpose is served, but lots and lots of people will be very angry. That's the choice that the astronomers in Prague now seem to be heading toward, like lemmings streaming toward a cliff.<br />Clark Chapman, an asteroid and comet specialist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder and someone who has spent a lot of time researching and thinking about the way astronomy is communicated to the public, agrees with the size-cutoff idea, as does Michael Brown, the discoverer of the "tenth planet." But almost nobody else has spoken up publicly for this simple, commonsense solution. Here's what Clark said about it in a recent email he sent me:<br />"Because the public is interested and involved, and because historical precedent is important, the solution I preferred (and sent last week to some of those involved in the Prague discussions) would have been to accept the nine planets we have had for most of a century, and add anything as big or bigger than Pluto to the list of planets."<br />Too bad he's not in Prague. I'm not sure if Brown is or not. We'll see what happens.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1156357834587465082006-08-23T14:26:00.000-04:002006-08-23T14:30:34.616-04:00pluto comixCartoonists have been having a field day with the IAU planet debate. Many of them have used it as a foil for political satire about Bush being on another world. <a href="http://www.cagle.com/news/Planets/main.asp">Here</a>'s a selection.<br /> And here's one that's actually relevant to this discussion: <a href="http://www.cagle.com/news/Planets/images/matson.gif">http://www.cagle.com/news/Planets/images/matson.gif<br /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1156351209008317442006-08-23T11:38:00.000-04:002006-08-23T13:38:51.230-04:00Astronomical lunacyWhen is a moon not a moon? Well, apparently it's when a bunch of astronomers get together and get so far off in their little ivory tower that they lose all touch with common sense.<br />The proposal being considered this week at the International Astronomical Union's meeting in Prague has a lot of things wrong with it -- like the fact that it instantly expands the number of planets from 9 to about 53, and tries to conceal this fact from the public by claiming it's only an expansion to 12 (Michael Brown, discoverer of the "tenth planet" temporarily named Xena, explains this all very clearly <a href="http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~mbrown/whatsaplanet/">HERE</a>). This is a surefire way to guarantee that nobody will ever take this loony idea seriously. But the craziest part of the whole proposal is its attempt to reclassify Pluto's moon Charon as a planet.<br />The overall definition of a planet being offered, that it's anything round that orbits a star, is one of the four main proposals that have been out there, and which I have described elsewhere (<a href="http://davidlchandler.com/planetdefinitions.html">HERE</a> is my summary of the proposals, from an artucle I wrote in New Scientist last year. I think it's still about the clearest summary of the different ideas that I've seen anywhere, if I do say so.) The definition they chose is probably not the worst idea that's been floated, but it certainly isn't the best one.<br />But then, completely out of left field, unrelated to any of the discussion that's been going on relatively soberly for more than a year, the IAU committee just made up a whole new, incredibly esoteric and geeky criterion having to do with whether the center of mass of the system is inside or outside the planet's surface, and thus -- poof! A wave of the wand -- Charon is suddenly a planet, which nobody had ever suggested seriously before. There's simply no way a rational person in touch with the world could have made such an outrageous, nonsensical leap. Nobody wanted it, nobody understands it. There was no reason for it.<br />So, the upshot is that, as I said before, the whole fiasco is just going to end up being totally ignored by everybody, and rightly so. The astronomers can crawl back to their ivory towers, and the rest of us can go along as though nothing had happened -- except that millions of schoolkids around the world will be confused out of their minds, and many of them will figure out that astronomers are just fools.<br />What is a continent? It's not something geologists debate about. There is no rational definition. Why is Europe a continent? Because of history. Why is Australia the smallest continent, and Greenland the biggest island? Because we say so -- there is no pretense that there's a rational basis for putting the cutoff in size where we do, we just do. Nobody's going to try to change it, nor is anybody going to try to claim there's a rational basis for it. We just live with it.<br />The astronomers had a chance to provide a definition that would have made everybody happy -- and I do mean everybody, except perhaps the most pointy-headed of the astronomers themselves. Everybody understands that A) any definition is going to be at least somewhat arbitrary, and B) that astronomers themselves, in their actual work, don't give a hoot about such semantic distinctions, it's really only the public at large who are affected by any of this. So why not act accordingly, by adopting a basic philosophy of trying to screw things up as little as possible? And it turns out there's a very, very easy way to do that, provided as a gift by mother nature.<br />It so happens that Pluto is a bit more than 1,000 km. in radius (1,150), while the asteroid Ceres, Pluto's moon Charon, and most Kuiper Belt objects are well below this threshold (Ceres, which would be a planet under the IAU's silly scheme, is just 450). The new "tenth planet" discovered by Michael Brown last year, at about 1,500 km radius, is bigger than Pluto.<br />So since any definition is going to be arbitrary anyway, why not just accept the nice, convenient round number of 1,000 km radius, and declare that anything bigger is a planet, anything smaller is an asteroid or comet? Period, end of story. Simple definition, and very easy to remember, no confusion. And that means the solar system has just grown by one, from nine planets to ten. That's a result that anybody can accept -- we've added new planets several times before as new discoveries were made, most recently with the discovery of Pluto in 1930. It's a normal part of the process, and instead of turning people off about crazy astronomers, would actually make people excited and upbeat about astronomy. There's a new planet! There might be more still to be discovered! (Though not a huge number, at least not within our capacity to discover anytime soon.)<br />A rational answer, a simple definition that would make everybody happy. But nobody is even seriously considering it. I've loved astronomy all my life, I know and respect many, many astronomers and consider many of them my friends, including most of those involved in this stupid debate. But I think they've totally lost their minds, and if they go ahead with this nonsense they will lose public respect, big time. Too bad for them. I hope they come to their senses, but I think the chances of that are virtually nil.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1146715286517153082006-05-03T23:53:00.000-04:002006-05-06T20:06:19.126-04:00And now it's goneAs expected, the asteroid 2006 HZ51, discovered last Thursday, has already been removed from the potentially hazardous objects list. It was taken down just after noon today, after additional observations ruled out any possibility of impact.<br />That's the outcome everyone expected, of course, as I explained in my original posting (below). It has now been moved over to the "<a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/removed.html">list of removed objects</a>" page. All 165 of its possible impact dates have now been ruled out.<br />But, as I said then, what was interesting about this case, as with so many objects that come and go from the list, is that it helps to focus our thinking about the whole issue of possible impacts, and often a newly-discovered object has interesting, unique features that illustrate different aspects of how we might respond to a real threat. In this case, the fact that there was a potential impact so soon -- just over two years away -- highlighted just how unprepared the world still is today for such a threat. If there had been a real risk, there would have been almost nothing we could do about it, with so little lead time. That underscores the importance of thinking ahead, planning, and doing the necessary research and testing so that we might have a way to respond, even to a short-term hazard (although two years would be a tough one, even with much greater advance preparation).<br />Anyway, once again the planet is safe for now. Phew.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1146334768186382812006-04-29T13:48:00.000-04:002007-01-16T01:54:08.406-05:00One in a million, but . . .The latest addition to <a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/">NASA-JPL's list</a> of objects that might strike the Earth someday is an interesting case, though not a particularly threatening one.<br />Odds of impact are less than one in a million, so nobody should get worried. What's more, the object was just discovered on Thursday and has just over one day of observations, which makes the impact-odds calculation just this side of meaningless, and the whole thing will probably go away (the impact risk, that is, not the asteroid) within the next few days.<br />But here's what makes this one interesting: The asteroid, called <a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/removed.html">2006 HZ51</a>, is the biggest object currently on the list, and one of the biggest ever, at an estimated 800 meters across (these estimates are hugely uncertain, so it's really more like somewhere between a half-kilometer and 1.5 km.). And, it is the object that has the nearest-term possible Earth-impact date of anything on the list: just over two years away, on the first day of summer (June 21) 2008.<br />Nothing to be afraid of, but an interesting case to think about. An object that big would be capable of devastating a continent, and wreaking havoc with the Earth's climate for years. So, what would we do if something like this came along that had a higher probability of impact? This certainly underscores, I think, the importance of being prepared and doing our homework. For example, the efforts of people like the <a href="http://www.b612foundation.org/index.html">B612 Foundation</a>, which aims to demonstrate the technology for deflecting a threatening asteroid sometime before 2015.<br />It also demonstrates the degree of uncertainty that still exists about how to deal with such hazards. There is still no formal protocol, as far as I know, as to just how high the odds would have to be, and how soon the potential impact would have to be, before it triggered an all-out alert to governments about the possible threat, and worldwide efforts to figure out what to do about it. It would probably be too short a time for any meanigful effort to deflect the object, so mitigation in this case would probably consist of things like stockpiling food, and perhaps even evacuating certain areas considered most at risk. One of the peculiar things about asteroid impacts is that even when the probability of impact is very fuzzy, the exact time and the range of locations where the impact would happen can be quite sharply defined. That's both a blessing and a curse, because it makes the decisions even harder for the astronomers involved, who have to tread a fine line between the risk of causing a panic and the risk of being seen as covering up a serious hazard. Tough issues, and still largely unresolved, but it's examples like 2006 HZ51 that help to focus people's thinking about what should be done. <br />Astronomers tend to get very upset when reporters like me call public attention to objects like this, fearing that the public will see it as "crying wolf" and will not pay attention when a real hazard comes along. I don't agree with that point of view, and I may or may not write a news item about this object. But they're safe for now because hardly anybody ever looks at this blog, so this is just between us, ok?<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1145809483947538242006-04-23T12:12:00.002-04:002006-08-26T13:03:01.870-04:00Pete Worden to take the reins at AmesNASA has <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2006/apr/HQ_06193_Worden_named_director.html">announced</a> that Pete Worden will be taking over as director of Ames Research Center, replacing Scott Hubbard (who was one of the most outspoken and savvy members of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board) who stepped down a few months ago.<br />Worden's name may sound familiar, as he's been involved in some of the most interesting work the Air Force Space Command has done in recent years. I don't know him personally (though we've met briefly a couple of times), but I've been writing about his work for more than 15 years. He's been a pioneer and leading thinker in two areas that are of great interest to me: The creation of a new generation of inexpensive, fully-reusable launch vehicles (Worden was the visionary behind the <a href="http://www.hq.nasa.gov/pao/History/x-33/dc-xa.htm">DC-X</a> vertical-takeoff, vertical-landing test rocket built under the auspices of the Strategic Defense Initiative, aka Star Wars, then taken over by NASA and killed off), and the issue of asteroid and comet impacts on Earth, including how to detect them and what to do if we find one with our name on it.<br />Worden retired from the Air Force a couple of years ago, briefly went to Washington to serve in the new dept. of Homeland Security, and then went out to pasture as a professor at U. of Az. I'm delighted to see him back in the saddle again in a position of importance, and can hardly wait to see what he manages to do there. Ames has always been one of NASA's most interesting places, especially for those interested in the possibilities of life elsewhere, and it's been somewhat under siege in the new belt-tightening at NASA. Worden will hopefully help to get Ames some of the respect it deserves from hq. He's a well-known guy in DC, and though he is a very pleasant and engaging person, it is my strong impression that he doesn't take shit from anyone.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1143418425705299472006-03-26T19:05:00.000-05:002007-02-03T16:24:50.346-05:00Falcon 1 was felled by fireA fire on the outside of the main engine, which caused a pneumatic control system to shut down and thus aborted the mission, was the cause of Friday's launch failure.<br />The SpaceX site now has the full story on their website, by company founder Elon Musk, <a href="http://www.spacex.com/">HERE</a>.<br />They have good pictures of the actual fire in flight, beginning about 25 seconds in.<br />There's also some amazing details about the fallback, <a href="http://kwajrockets.blogspot.com/">HERE</a>, on a blog from Kwajelein Atoll. He describes the satellite as having come straight through the roof of a machine shop there.<br />Then again, the author of the site, Kimbal Musk (who is the brother of Elon Musk) also writes that "Please don't trust a word I say. Really. For all you know, I'm making it all up and I'm actually sitting in my basement somewhere in Boulder." (Kimbal owns a restaurant on Boulder's famed Pearl Street mall). But it doesn't sound like he's making it up, and Elon Musk confirmed in a private message that what Kimbal writes in his blog, "though unofficial, is largely correct."<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1143241242758947932006-03-24T17:58:00.000-05:002006-03-24T18:00:42.776-05:00Liftoff, total lossThe Falcon 1 spacecraft made it off the launch pad, after numerous delays, only to be lost a few seconds later. No details yet on what went wrong, but apparently the two-stage rocket, carrying a satellite built by Air Force cadets, never made it to orbit. I'll report back when I know more.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1143232377389733952006-03-24T15:29:00.000-05:002006-08-26T12:59:31.306-04:00just a boat in the wayFalcon 1 looks like it will be ok to launch after all. It's still 26 minutes or so into the unplanned hold, but it turns out the cause was just the recovery ship, part of the launch support team, being in the wrong area for launch. It is being moved, and launch should be back on track.<br />This will be the first of what SpaceX plans to be a whole family of low-cost, mostly reusable launch vehicles. All will use the same rocket engine as this Falcon 1, in different configurations (either 5 or 9 of them), so this test is an important validation of the whole concept.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1143231181351714512006-03-24T15:09:00.000-05:002006-03-24T15:13:01.366-05:00Falcon 1: Go, but holdingFalcon 1, the first-generation new spacecraft from Elon Musk's Space Exploration company, (Space-X), is set for launch this afternoon from Kwajelein Atoll in the Pacific. The launch was set for 1 p.m. PST, but is currently on hold, reset, to T minus 1 hour and 15 minutes. Not sure what the glitch is, but you can watch the webcast live at <a href="http://mfile.akamai.com/22165/live/reflector:47570.asx?bkup=47571">SpaceX</a>.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1141286930515502392006-03-02T02:54:00.000-05:002006-04-23T12:08:32.426-04:0096 years to doomsday?An asteroid called 2004 VD17 has just been given the second-highest Torino-scale rating ever assigned, a 2 on the 10-point scale. The estimated 580-meter-diameter asteroid has a current probability of one in 1600 of slamming into the Earth on May 4, 2102.<br />The only other asteroid that ever got a rating higher than 1 on the supposedly Richter-like hazard scale, which combines the likelihood of impact and the extent of its devastation, was 2004 MN4, which was later renamed Apophis. That one briefly, in Dec. 2004, was given one chance in 300 of an impact in March 2029, giving it a Torino rating of 4, which was ruled out after just a few weeks. But Apophis continues to be a potential threat as well, because it will make such a close approach to Earth that year that its orbit might be altered enough to send it on a collision course in 2036.<br />The possible impact of 2004 VD17 will probably be ruled out quickly as well, as most of them are, as more observations allow the orbit to be pinned down more precisely. And the date is so far away that there would be plenty of time to plan and carry out a mission to nudge it aside long before then. But if it did hit, an object that size, though not a dinosaur killer or civilization destroyer, would produce a 15 gigaton blast, leave a crater 10 kilometers across and pretty much devastate a continent and cause global climatic effects.<br />There's a good story about it on <a href="http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn8788-new-asteroid-at-top-of-earththreat-list.html]">NewScientistSpace</a>, and the technical details are <a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004vd17.html">HERE</a> on NASA-JPL's near Earth impact hazard pages.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1140730280387274712006-02-23T16:30:00.000-05:002007-01-26T05:13:30.716-05:00Following a moon shadow<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6188/898/1600/morana_strip.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6188/898/320/morana_strip.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><br /><br />An amateur astronomer using a conventional 10-inch reflecting telescope and CCD camera has captured the best images ever of the International Space Station crossing in front of the moon last week.<br /><a href="http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/swpod2006/22feb06/isstransit_strip.gif"> Eight frames of video </a> from the electronic camera show a very clear silhouette of the ISS during a rare transit of the moon on Feb. 13. While this not the first time images of the ISS crossing the moon have been captured by telescopes on Earth, these are thought to be the best such images ever, according to a <a href="http://spaceweather.com/"> posting on spaceweather.com </a>.<br />Ed Morana, the amateur astronomer who took the images after travelling 50 miles to the predicted transit site ouside Newman, California, has further technical details on how he did it on his <a href="http://pictures.ed-morana.com/ISSTransits/"> own web page</a>, which also includes earlier images he took of ISS transits of the moon and the sun.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1140128840437682592006-02-16T17:13:00.000-05:002006-02-16T17:27:20.450-05:00Griffin under fireNASA chief Mike Griffin had to <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/02/16/space.budget/">defend</a> his agency's budget request before Congress today, and boy was he on the hotseat. Before he even started, the Planetary Society announced a <a href="http://www.planetary.org/about/press/releases/2006/0216_Planetary_Society_Presents_to_Congress.html">major campaign</a> opposing this budget's proposal's slashing of science in favor of a moribund space shuttle and a never-to-be-finished space station. PlanSoc prez Lou Friedman says "the Bush Administration's proposed 5-year budget for NASA, just submitted to Congress, is an attack on science."<br />The society's statement goes on "the Planetary Society supports space ventures. We have supported the shuttle: it has been a great technical achievement, unequalled on Earth. We have supported the International Space Station." However, it says, "we cannot support a proposal that hobbles, or eventually destroys, the NASA science program." Strong stuff.<br />The Congressmen came out loaded for bear at Thursday's hearing as well. "This budget is bad for space science, worse for earth science, even worse for aeronautics," said the committee's chairman, U.S. Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-New York. "It basically cuts or de-emphasizes every forward-looking truly futuristic program of the agency."<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1139941167356852422006-02-14T12:58:00.000-05:002006-08-26T13:20:18.823-04:00Just 22,239 miles to goAn impressive <a href="http://www.liftport.com/index.php?site=news&news_id=3&PHPSESSID=e966c734dba6760ac064b74a491b079d">demonstration and test</a> of technologies needed for the construction of a space elevator has been successfully carried out by a company called<a href="http://www.liftport.com/"> Liftport</a>.<br />They deployed a mile-long tether, carried up by three weather balloons, and had it in place for six hours while experimental crawlers tried to climb up it. One succeeded in climbing 1500 feet.<br />This is far more advanced that anything achieved at last October's <a href="http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/051024_spaceelevator_challenge.html">Space Elevator competition</a>. (More stories about that <a href="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9798242/">HERE</a> and <a href="http://www.popsci.com/popsci/aviationspace/20e25ddc7a0e6010vgnvcm1000004eecbccdrcrd.html">HERE</a>). The technology is growing, and SpaceLift seems to think there may be interim market opportunities in tethers to platforms far short of orbit, such as balloons for aerial surveillance or for emergency communications, for example during a natural disaster.<br />There will apparently be another competition this year, in July or August in Mountain View, California. Details <a href="http://www.elevator2010.org/site/competition.html">HERE</a>.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1139876970040705562006-02-13T19:22:00.000-05:002006-09-03T15:53:25.183-04:00Falcon 1 launch attempt: glass half full?Ok, once again the Falcon 1 launcher, developed by Elon Musk's <a href="http://www.spacex.com/">SpaceX</a> company, did not get off the ground in its launch attempt last Friday from Kwajelien Atoll in Pacific -- a frequent test site for Air Force missile tests. There have been several delays, as a result of a series of technical glitches. This time, the rocket engine actually did fire successfully for a few seconds, so at least it ended up being a <a href="http://mfile.akamai.com/22165/wmv/spacex.download.akamai.com/22165/F1StaticFireClip.asx">successful engine test</a>, even if not the expected first test launch.<br />But this does demostrate one of the virtues of this mixed-bag design. Unlike most traditional rockets, this one can be shut down, and then fired again, without a lot of fuss and kerfuffle. That's one of the very key aspects to bringing launch costs down by making launch and landing operations simple, routine and airplane-like.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11198771.post-1139862598501286502006-02-13T15:08:00.000-05:002006-02-13T15:29:58.513-05:00Slashing science at NASAPeople are beginning to absorb the consequences of the <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/02/0208_060208_nasa.html">deep cuts in space science </a>outlined in the new budget unveiled last monday and which NASA chief Mike Griffin defended before Congress last Thursday. In a nutshell, about $3.7 billion of science gets cut out or deffered indefinitely. Among the really important programs that are now in question are the Terrestrial Planet Finder, an important new space telescope aimed at studying nearby planetary systems, and the <a href="http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn8712-nasa-leaves-jumbojet-telescope-on-the-runway.html">Sofia airborne infrared telescope</a>, nearing completion now, and plans for a mission to <a href="http://www.planetary.org/special/executive_director/02102006.html">Jupiter's moon Europa</a>, with its frozen-over ocean, and the planned outrigger telescopes to allow the Keck Observatory to fulfill its high-resolution potential as an interferometer.<br />Sure, hard choices are going to need to be made. But it looks like some serious science is going to be closed down in favor of paying the escalating costs of a space shuttle that's going to be retired anyway, and a space station that's never really going to be finished.<div class="blogger-post-footer">space astronomy telescopes NASA planets Mars Saturn
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</div>DLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17003696245895313146noreply@blogger.com0